A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in northern mid-latitudes

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. Future wintertime atmospheric circulation changes in the Euro–Atlantic (EAT) and Pacific–North American (PAC) sectors are studied from a weather regimes perspective. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 6 (CMIP5 CMIP6) historical simulation performance reproducing observed is first evaluated, showing general improvement CMIP6 models, which more evident for EAT. projected by CMIP5 scenario simulations analysed terms of change frequency persistence regimes. In EAT sector, significant positive trends found NAO+ (North Atlantic Oscillation) SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 SSP5–8.5 scenarios with concomitant decrease Scandinavian blocking Ridge For PAC, Pacific Trough regime shows increase, while Bering predicted to all analysed. spread among model responses linked different levels warming polar stratosphere, tropical upper troposphere, North Arctic.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Weather and climate dynamics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2698-4016']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-163-2021